A powerful El Niño is developing in the tropical Pacific, with meteorologists suggesting it could become one of the strongest events on record this winter. But what could this mean for Norway?
The season is turning, and Norwegians can feel it in the air. But not everyone is expecting snow. Wetter than average conditions are forecast in Eastern Norway and Agder. If cold air coincides with that precipitation, snow will be more likely. That all depends on temperatures, which have some interesting trends this winter in Norway.
A milder start to Norwegian winter
The Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway) currently favours a milder-than-average start to winter. A warmer seasonal outlook doesn’t necessarily rule out significant cold weather, especially since there may be more frequent cold spells in southern Norway later in the season.
However, the El Niño expected to strengthen towards December, with some implications about Norway’s winter 2026–27. El Niño generally increases the chances of a mild early winter, but also a colder middle and late winter.
What do the latest winter forecasts suggest for Norway?
Atmospheric conditions favour colder conditions later in the season for some regions. The start of winter is a very different picture!
According to the Norwegian Meteorological Institute’s seasonal outlook (14 October), the signal for milder-than-usual conditions is strongest in northern Norway. Southern areas could experience more frequent cold spells than usual, particularly towards the end of the three-month period of winter (January 2027).
In the south, including Oslo, there is also a greater likelihood of low-pressure systems affecting southern Norway, potentially bringing wetter-than-average conditions to Eastern Norway and Agder. For western and northern Norway, however, the precipitation forecast is less conclusive.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service’s October forecast broadly supports a milder-than-average European winter, although the temperature signal is relatively weak over Scandinavia. This highlights the current uncertainty surrounding Norway’s seasonal outlook.
Meanwhile, the World Meteorological Organization forecasts further strengthening of the ongoing El Niño event, with tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures expected to peak around December 2026.
Could El Niño impact Norway’s winter?
MET Norway notes that El Niño can increase the likelihood of a mild early winter followed by colder conditions during the middle and later parts of winter. However, the institute emphasises that El Niño’s influence on Norwegian weather is relatively weak, with other atmospheric factors often playing a more significant role.
One such factor is the polar vortex. MET Norway’s forecasts indicate a possible weakening from late December through January, which could increase the potential for prolonged cold periods later in winter. However, this development is not guaranteed.
Snow in Norway come winter?
As for snowfall, the outlook does not rule out significant cold spells or snowy periods, even if the season as a whole turns out milder than average. The possibility of heavy snowfall appears uncertain for the moment.
The middle and south of Norway could experience these colder spells compared to the average, later on in the winter season. Southern Norway may face most of these cold spells. A weakening polar vortex may reinforce cold trends through January 2027.
Still, those in northern and north Eastern Norway should already look out of snow in upland areas, as weather maps are indicating light snowfall later this week, as shown on Windy maps. Short range forecasts indicate snow showers in northern Norway, including Tromsø on 5 November and Kirkenes from Friday–Saturday.
Cities like Oslo and Bergen could expect cold spells later in winter, where milder temperatures can be enjoyed for the time being when winter begins!
Why could El Niño bring both mild and cold weather?
It may sound surprising that the same system can influence Norway with both milder and colder weather, but that reflects its true complexity. Essentially, it alters probabilities of certain weather patterns at different stages.
Interestingly, El Niño can influence northern European weather in contrasting ways as winter progresses. During early winter, changes in atmospheric circulation can favour stronger Atlantic westerlies, bringing relatively mild and wet conditions to Norway.
Later in the season, however, El Niño can increase the likelihood of disruptions to the polar vortex. If this leads to atmospheric blocking and weaker Atlantic westerlies, colder air from the Arctic or continental Europe could become more influential, potentially bringing longer cold spells.
Whether these colder periods also bring substantial snowfall depends on the availability of moisture and the position of weather systems. The connection is not guaranteed, but it helps explain why a generally mild winter forecast can coexist with an increased possibility of colder weather later in the season.
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References and further reading:
1. MET Norway — Seasonal forecast: Questions and answers
Explains how El Niño can favour a mild early winter and colder conditions later, alongside possible polar vortex weakening. met.no
2. MET Norway — Detailed seasonal outlook, 14 October 2026
Discusses the possibility of more frequent cold spells in southern Norway and El Niño’s relatively weak influence on Norwegian weather. met.no
3. Nature Geoscience — The role of the stratosphere in the European climate response to El Niño
Peer-reviewed research explaining how El Niño can influence the stratosphere and contribute to colder late-winter conditions in northern Europe. Nature Geoscience
4. Journal of Climate — Intraseasonal Effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on North Atlantic Climate
Research examining how El Niño’s effects on North Atlantic weather differ during winter. American Meteorological Society Journals
5. Atmospheric Science Letters (2026) — Prediction of European Winter 2023/24: Influence of a Strong El Niño
Recent research examining early-winter storminess and the more complex late-winter North Atlantic response during a strong El Niño event.
