This year’s El Niño is expected to break records, with winter impacts to come. It has already resulted in a number of temperature records. There is a reason this rapidly strengthening system is called by many outlets a “Super El Niño.” Find out why, and the reasons meteorologists have concerns about its expected strengthening over autumn and peak into winter.
eteorologists have concerns about its expected strengthening over autumn and peak into winter. Will those affect systems over the North Sea?
This year’s El Niño is rapidly intensifying across the equatorial Pacific ahead of the winter. Oceanic and atmospheric data confirmed a jump in strength according to Severe Weather Europe.
Multiple other sources suggest that this is going to be one of the strongest El Niño events in over a century. It may even be ‘historic’. Our recent article explored why, and what that may mean for autumn in Norway.
“The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed.”
Long-range data does confirm that it will be a historically significant event come wintertime.
“The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis – ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all.” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres, in his video statement.
What is causing the Super El Niño
It is thought to be attributed to a record-breaking westerly wind bursts, but also the weakening of east-west trade winds (see nordweather.com and scroll down for our embedded windy map).
While the general weakening of the east-west trade winds provides the baseline condition for El Niño to develop, westerly wind bursts (WWBs) act as powerful accelerators. These brief, intense reversals of the prevailing winds act like a sudden shove to the ocean, triggering massive underwater waves called Kelvin waves.
The Super El Niño is reaching unprecedented levels
BBC Weather reported today on how the system has been strengthening to ‘unprecedented’ levels according to scientists. A number of measures are now in record levels.
In September last month, scientists stated new record for daily sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific. Meteorological data from European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggest that El Niño could peak in December this year (2026). Some experts consider the projections ‘historic’ or ‘astonishing’.
As a result, there are concerns over food security in parts of East Africa and the Asia-Pacific. Another concerning event may be the development of tropical cyclone activity and storms unprepared for.
What is the El Niño?
Essentially, El Niño is a large-scale climate pattern developed by interactions between the tropical Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere. The El Niño is not new. It is a natural but complex system which occurs every 2-7 years, typically lasting about 12 months.
Is it driven by climate change?
Some scientists are concerned about how the El Niño may reflect growing climate change problems. While it may be impacted by climate change, while the Pacific warms under global warming, it is such an intricate, interconnected system across meteorological and oceanographic dynamics, it can be difficult to directly attribute impacts to climate change. Still, there is a great wealth of research into the system being conducted by oceanographers and climate scientists.
“We are currently witnessing an El Niño event that is unprecedented in the historical record,” Dr Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, told the BBC. “The strength of El Niño this year is spilling out of the traditional El Niño region,” Dr Hausfather also said in a BBC article.
These dynamics do seem to drive up temperatures in the year. The last year was one of the warmest on record. Next year, high temperatures are likely to continue into 2027 on a global scale. Data does suggest that Pacific warming is now complicating comparisons of El Niño strength.
The clear connection remains an ongoing area of research. At present, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) does not currently state any evidence that climate change is making these events stronger or more common. It may just be that more data is needed, and more researchers asking the difficult questions about how systems interact. At Nordweather, we are particularly interested in those connections.
The impact on Norway or the North Sea
Whether El Niño affects Norway depends on how it influences the wider North Atlantic circulation, including the jet stream and North Atlantic Oscillation. Seasonal forecasts can indicate whether wetter, windier or milder conditions are becoming more likely, but El Niño is only one of several climate drivers and cannot predict Norway’s weather on its own.
At the same time, we are experiencing one of the strongest El Niño events on record. However, it is difficult to predict how this will affect the European winter. There is only a slight tendency toward slightly wetter winters and springs during El Niño phases. #elnino https://t.co/Ng0ydo3CIT
— Max Hartmann (@maxi91kus) October 13, 2026
Meteorologists do indicate that a wetter autumn than average is expected in some areas, for both the UK and Norway in the autumn season. You can read more details on where in our recent article on how this system may implicitly affect Norway based on the autumn 2026 outlook.
“The developing El Niño is expected to continue strengthening through autumn before reaching its peak during winter, and the Met Office will continue to monitor how it interacts with other climate drivers over the coming weeks and months.” the UK Met Office wrote online.
At Nordweather, we will observe closely, as to the differences of the weather outlook between the UK and Norway as systems develop over the North Sea this autumn. Subscribe for updates below.
Sources
The 2026 Super El Niño is Breaking Records, With Winter 2026/2027 Weather Impacts Ahead. Severe Weather Europe. September 2026.
Super El Niño sets another record as it strengthens to ‘unprecedented levels’. BBC Weather. October 2026.
What does the latest long-range forecast tell us and what role could El Niño play this autumn? September 2026.
